2014年職稱英語(理工類)教材閱讀判斷文章及譯文2

　　El Nino

　　While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 El Nino a few months in advance1, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance. That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.

　　Using a computer, the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate El Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature.

　　The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C　Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it “suggests2 El Nino is indeed predictable.”

　　“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods,” said Weare. He added that the new method “makes it possible to predict El Nino at long lead times3.” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said.

　　The ability to predict the wanning and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance4. The 1997 El Nino, for example, caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. The 1877 El Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said.

　　When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report.

　　While predicting smaller El Nino events remains tricky, the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.

　　El Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.

　　The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.

　　詞匯：

　　El Nino n.厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象

　　equatorial / ,ekw?’t?:r??l / adj.赤道的

　　occurrence / ?’k?r?ns/ n.發(fā)生

　　meteorologist / ,mi:t??’r?l?d??st/ n.氣象學家

　　offset / ’?fset / v.抵消

　　lead / li:d / adj.領(lǐng)先的

　　monsoon / m?n’su:n / n.季風

　　tricky / ’tr?k? / adj.難以捉摸的

　　注釋：

　　1.… methods had limited success predicting predicting the 1997 El Nino a few months in success的含義。

　　2.suggests：suggest在文中的意思是“表明，顯示出”。

　　3.at long lead times：lead的意思相當于in advance。at long lead times的意思是“在領(lǐng)先很長的一段時間里”。

　　4.of immense importance = immensely important

　　練習：

　　1.The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict El Nino a few months in advance.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　2.The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past El Nino occurrences and sea-surface temperatures.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　3.The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past El Nino occurrences.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　4.Weare’s contribution in predicting El Nino was highly praised by other meteorologists.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　5.According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by El Nino in 1991 and 1997 affected 200 million Chinese people.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　6.It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　7.A special institute has been set up in America to study El Nino.

　　A　Right B　Wrong C　Not mentioned

　　答案與題解：

　　1.B文章第一段第一句說，哥倫比亞大學的方法can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance，而不是幾個月。

　　2.A本題給出的信息是正確的，根據(jù)是第二段的第一句。

　　3.C第四段說到其他一些預測El Nino的方法也有涉及sea-surface temperatures這一因素的，但是文章沒有提到是誰首先用sea-surface temperatures測定法預測El Nino的。

　　4.C文章中提到Weare的地方是第三段、第四段，但都沒有說到氣象學家篼度評價Weare在預測El Nino方面做出的貢獻。

　　5.B第六段說到，關(guān)于中國受災的數(shù)據(jù)是根據(jù)一份2002年的United Nations report作出的。

　　6.A第八段說，El Nino一般開始于4月與6月之間，到12月與2月之間達到高峰，從發(fā)生到高峰經(jīng)歷的時間約為8個月。

　　7.C通篇文章沒有提到美國成立了一個El Nino研究所。

　　譯文：厄爾尼諾

　　當某些預報方法不能提前幾個月成功預測 1997年厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的時候，哥倫比亞大學的研究人員說他們的方法可以提前兩年預測厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。這對全世界各地的政府、農(nóng)民和其他尋求為厄爾尼諾帶來的干旱和大雨做準備的人來說是一條。

　　研究人員使用計算機把 1980年初 2000年之間的海面溫度和后來的厄爾尼諾的發(fā)生聯(lián)系起來，進而能夠用之前的海面溫度預測遠至 1857年的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。研究結(jié)果刊登在最新的《自然》雜志上。

　　研究人員說他們的方法并不完美，但加利福尼亞大學的氣象學家 Bryan C.Weare說這種方法顯示出厄爾尼諾是可以預測的，盡管他們已并沒有參加研究工作。

　　Weare說:“這會促使其他人去尋找里好的辦法?！彼€補充說，新的方法“使在提前很長的一段時間里預測厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象成為可能。 ”其他的方法也使用海面溫度，但他們沒能回顧得那么久遠是因為缺少其他的資料，而這些資料在近幾十年才能夠獲得。

　　預測太平洋的升溫和降溫有極其重要的意義。英國 Reading的歐洲中級天氣預報中心的 David Anderson說:以 1997年的厄爾尼諾為例，它導致了全球范圍內(nèi)約 200億美元的損失，抵消了在其他一些地區(qū)的良性影響; 1877年的厄爾尼諾與印度遭受的季風和饑荒同時發(fā)生，導致了印度和中國約四千萬人喪生，結(jié)果剌激了季節(jié)性預報的發(fā)展。

　　根據(jù) 2002年的聯(lián)合國報道， 1991年初和 1997年厄爾尼諾爆發(fā)的時候，僅中國就有 2億人受到洪水的侵害。

　　然而小的厄爾尼諾預測還是難以捉摸的，如果新的方法被認可的話，對大型厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的預測至少應該被提前一年。

　　厄爾尼諾總是在 4月和 6月期間發(fā)展，在 12月初 2月之間達到高峰。氣候總是在 9月初 12月之間變暖，并且每 2年到 7年出現(xiàn)一次。

　　盡管氣溫在年底的時候有可能微弱上升，新的預測方法預計未來兩年不會出現(xiàn)大的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象。